
31312杰克逊霍尔“吹风会”,美联储官员猛吹降息风,渐进式还是大胆行动?123123
123123123312Eastern time on Thursday, a number of Federal Reserve officials interviewed the media, and then on the issue of interest rate cuts, overall, Federal Reserve officials hope to steadily promote interest rates lower.
While Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is due to speak on Friday, investors will be watching closely for any hints on how quickly policymakers expect to move.
Gradual rate cuts or bold action?
First, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said in an interview with the media that she believes the Fed should start easing monetary policy sooner rather than later, but the pace of rate cuts should be gradual and methodical.
Collins stressed that while inflation has come down, the Fed is focused on maintaining a healthy labor market while lowering inflation. She said she did not see any "big warning signs" in the economy and said it was crucial to keep inflation down while maintaining a healthy labor market.
"Under these circumstances, I think it would be appropriate to start easing policy fairly soon," Collins said ahead of the Kansas City Fed's annual symposium in Grand Teton National Park.
Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker also said in the media that it is necessary to start cutting rates in September, and he wants to have more information before deciding on a specific rate cut.
"We need to start bringing interest rates down in an orderly fashion," Harker told CNBC. He added that he wanted more information before deciding whether a move of 25 or 50 basis points next month would be appropriate.
At the same time, Claudia Sahm, the author of the Sam Rule and chief economist at New Century Advisors and a former Fed economist, criticized the Fed's decision to cut rates.
She argued that the Fed's 50 basis point rate cut in September was "not necessarily a mistake," especially given that it should have started in July.
Sahm noted that the slack in the labor market has been excessive, and the Fed should put more emphasis on maximizing employment and pay no less attention to the labor market than the importance of reducing inflation.
She stressed that the Fed should focus on direction or forecasts rather than just relying on each piece of data. Sahm expects Fed policymakers will likely recalibrate their approach to account for the growing risks.
In contrast, event moderator Jeffrey Schmid, president of the Kansas City Fed, said he wasn't ready to support a rate cut, saying he needed to watch the data over the next few weeks before making a decision.
"What really makes sense to me is to look carefully at the data over the next few weeks and before we do something - at least before I do something or recommend something - we need to look a little bit more," Mr Schmid said. Referring to yesterday's downward revision by the BLS, Mr Schmid admitted it was a "big number", "but it hasn't changed the way I think about monetary policy".
In addition, former St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said inan interview with Global Finance that the U.S. economy is in good shape for a soft landing, and that the Fed is expected to start cutting interest rates in September and may continue to do so in subsequent meetings until the policy rate is lower.
While the Fed is widely expected to start cutting rates soon, Mohamed El-Erian, a prominent Wall Street economist and chief economic adviser at Allianz, thinks the market's expectations of a big cut are too optimistic.
He pointed out that the market has already priced in multiple rate cuts in advance, but the actual rate cut may only be 75 basis points. He warns that markets will adjust their expectations at some point.
Market expectations for Fed rate cuts this year have been volatile. The current market estimates that the most likely rate cut this year is between 75 basis points and 100 basis points, with the median forecast that "25 basis points +25 basis points +50 basis points" is the most likely rate cut path this year.
Bets in the futures market show that the probability of a 50 basis point cut in September has fallen back to less than 27 per cent from 38 per cent yesterday, suggesting that a 25 basis point cut is a "certainty".
It is unclear how the Fed's decision to cut interest rates will affect the economy and markets. Investors and policymakers are closely watching the Fed's next move and how it will balance the relationship between economic growth and inflation.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's upcoming speech at the annual Jackson Hole conference could provide more clues about the future direction of monetary policy.
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