{"statusCode":200,"message":"","totalCount":0,"result":{"id":509500,"title":"地产持续走强！政策暖风频吹，反转来了？","tag":{"name":"原创","color":"#999999"},"createTimestamp":1644547150,"updateTimestamp":1644547185,"coverImageUrl":"https://cdn.gelonghui.com/default/cover_default2.png?guru_height=416&guru_width=750","count":{"read":53,"comment":0,"favorite":0,"like":0,"share":0},"statistic":{"isTrial":false,"isPay":false,"isColumn":false,"isLike":null,"isFavorite":null,"canShare":true,"canFavorite":true},"radio":null,"column":{"id":529685,"nick":"GLH_a5b1807e","avatar":"https://img4.gelonghui.com/headdefault/avatar_default2.png","showRoles":[{"type":null,"description":"社区大V","icon":"https://img2.gelonghui.com/role_big_v.png","credentials":"A股研究达人"},{"type":"COLUMN_AUTHOR","description":"专栏作家","icon":"https://img2.gelonghui.com/role_column_author.png","credentials":"格隆汇专栏作家"}],"tags":null,"brief":"","sex":null,"inviteCode":"5VPEOJ","route":"https://test-m.gelonghui.com/user/529685","isFollow":false,"country":null,"state":null,"city":null,"email":null,"phone":null,"countryCode":"86","needBindPhone":null,"roles":null,"userCount":{"fans":306221,"follow":17,"post":0,"dynamic":2061,"optionalStock":1,"optionalETF":0,"optionalFund":0,"readHistory":0,"favorite":2,"followingPortfolios":0,"createPortfolios":0,"validPortfolios":0},"vip":null,"level":{"exp":2461.0,"currentLevel":2,"currentLevelMaxExp":20000.0},"account":null,"message":null,"binds":null,"agreeUserAgreement":true,"canUploadVideo":null,"kyc":{"certification":false,"investor":false,"svipInvestor":false,"fundInvestor":false,"needAddBirthday":null,"signContract":null,"ageCategory":null},"svip":null,"isBlock":null,"columnAuthorStatus":"authenticated","createDate":1630473153,"membership":null,"regionName":"广东","momentPublishable":false,"uid":622402478353,"canReview":false,"advisoryCertification":null,"financialCircles":[],"styleTags":[],"isHotPictureAuthor":false},"album":null,"purchaseInfo":null,"remainWordNumber":0,"summary":"估值修复","source":{"description":null},"content":"<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">今日早盘，房地产开发板块集体走强，泰禾集团、南山控股、荣安地产、天保基建、嘉凯城、中国武夷等多只个股涨停，中国武夷、大龙地产、新城控股等涨幅居。</span><br></p><p><img src=\"https://img2.gelonghui.com/library/2e6bc-e3ac85ce-ca04-4ff8-bf74-948ae1c7760d.jpg?guru_height=472&guru_width=828\"></p><p>可以看出，年初至今，在市场震荡下行的情况下，房地产逆势走强，部分房企迎来估值持续修复行情。泰禾集团、南山控股年初至今涨超50%。</p><p><img src=\"https://img2.gelonghui.com/library/2e6bc-e3ac85ce-ca04-4ff8-bf74-948ae1c7760d.jpg?guru_height=472&guru_width=828\"></p><p>港股市场上，内房股延续反弹，多股升幅居港股通标的股前列。金奥国际涨超20%，时代中国、富力地产、世茂集团涨幅超7%。</p><p><b>消息面上，房地产政策暖风频吹。</b></p><p>2月8日，人民银行、银保监会联合发文《关于保障性租赁房有关贷款不纳入地产贷款集中管理的通知》。新规的落地，不论是对减轻房企负债投资压力，还是打消银行发放涉房贷款诸多顾虑都有积极作用。与此同时，此次调整延续了去年三季度以来房地产金融调控政策在坚持“房住不炒”主基调下，实施微调以纠偏市场悲观预期的操作思路。</p><p>有机构人士认为，这个政策策对地产的影响有，但是比较小，主要还是利好保障性租赁房的开发者。但是当前的策是非常希望保障性租赁房的路子能够走通的，类似商品房，能有一个自洽的开发模式和逻辑。</p><p><b>不过，点燃今日房地产行情的，最重磅的莫过于全国性商品房预售资金监管的意见已于近日出台。市场认为，该规定下，房企有望获更多流动性。</b></p><p>有媒体报道，预售资金监管额度由市县级城乡建设部门根据工程造价合同等因素确定，当监管账户内资金达到监管额度后，超出额度的资金可由房企提取使用。办法有利于厘清各地商品房预售资金监管责任，增强商品房预售资金使用的灵活性，可对此前部分地方预售资金监管过严的做法起到纠偏效果。</p><p>其中的关键字在于，<b>在能确保项目竣工所需资金额度的前提下，超出额度可由房企提取自由使用。</b></p><p><b>有专业人士认为，对房地产企业而言，这是一个非常大的利好，将有利于缓解房企短期资金压力，避免行业基本面下行进一步演变为金融风险。</b>由于房企融资既有的循环链条已被破坏，因此目前政策着力点主要在并购贷款、银行信用额度放开等层面，近期已有部分地方政府（广州、成都、烟台、厦门等地）调整预售相关政策以期纾解房房企流动性压力，由于二三季度将进入房企偿债高峰，因此短期内政策的有效执行将降低房企信用暴露风险。</p><p>国泰君安认为，对预售资金监管再次出台文件，我们预计是将预售资金从规定要监管但实际未监管（2021年以前）、到担心出风险因此超额监管（2021年至今）之后，再度纠偏，既不会回到几乎不监管时代，也不会超额监管，进入真正的规范市场。</p><p>预售资金一定需要监管，这是预售制度背后房企应尽的义务，也是居民权利应得到的保障，因此，不会重新回到几乎不监管的时代，但也要让各地政府不能在能够完成保交楼情况下进行超额监管。<b>本次媒体报道，下放到各级政府制定具体细则，预计将带来一次新的纠偏。</b></p><p><b>国金证券认为这一调整对地产行业是实质性利好，也是短期缓解众多房企现金流压力的最有效办法。</b>从受益对象来看，这一调整对部分尚未暴雷但现金流极其紧张的民营房企改善最大。后续市场的关注重心会从稳健为主的国企切换到高弹性的民企。根据调研，近期部分省份已经在预售资金监管的执行层面出现了点对点口头放松，不再像此前那样超额监管，开始允许部分企业按照施工进度提取监管资金去支付工程款。随着本次全国性商品房预售资金监管办法的出台，预计后续会有更多城市在执行层面跟进落地，调整监管方式。</p>","file":null,"language":"zh-CN","relatedStocks":[{"market":"sz","code":"000732","name":"ST泰禾","canClick":true},{"market":"sz","code":"002314","name":"南山控股","canClick":true},{"market":"sz","code":"000517","name":"荣安地产","canClick":true},{"market":"sz","code":"000965","name":"天保基建","canClick":true},{"market":"sz","code":"000918","name":"*ST嘉凯","canClick":true},{"market":"hk","code":"01233","name":"时代中国控股","canClick":true},{"market":"hk","code":"02777","name":"富力地产","canClick":true},{"market":"hk","code":"00813","name":"世茂集团","canClick":true}],"relatedInfos":[{"id":2,"type":"subject","name":"房地产","link":"https://test.gelonghui.com/subject/2","coverImageUrl":"https://img7.gelonghui.com/apply/211719_20181221/column_article_file_20181221165623240.png"},{"id":530,"type":"subject","name":"房地产开发","link":"https://test.gelonghui.com/subject/530","coverImageUrl":"https://img2.gelonghui.com/subject/ppp.png"},{"id":451,"type":"subject","name":"内地房地产","link":"https://test.gelonghui.com/subject/451","coverImageUrl":"https://img2.gelonghui.com/subject/ppp.png"},{"id":447,"type":"subject","name":"蓝筹地产","link":"https://test.gelonghui.com/subject/447","coverImageUrl":"https://img2.gelonghui.com/subject/ppp.png"},{"id":369,"type":"subject","name":"新型城镇化","link":"https://test.gelonghui.com/subject/369","coverImageUrl":"https://img2.gelonghui.com/subject/xinxingchengzhenhua.png"},{"id":73,"type":"subject","name":"粤港澳大湾区","link":"https://test.gelonghui.com/subject/73","coverImageUrl":"https://img7.gelonghui.com/apply/126189_20190218/column_article_file_20190218185750311.jpeg"}],"closeComment":true,"readTime":2,"wordCount":1353,"reviewStatus":"approved","topic":null}}